The registration period for the FY 2024 H-1B Cap officially opened on March 1 and will remain open for the next two weeks, closing on March 17 at 11am CST. As hopeful H-1B candidates and prospective employers alike wait with their fingers crossed for the results, it’s worth revisiting what we experienced in 2022. While every year is different, last year’s data provides useful insight into what we can expect to see for 2023.

With recent tech layoffs from some major players, some may be questioning whether IT demand remains as strong as it once was. From what we are experiencing, that is simply not the case. Demand for IT works remains steady, and many employers are still struggling to find the talent they need. That aside, many may be wondering if the layoffs will affect this year’s H-1B lottery in any way. It’s a good question.

With many laid-off H-1B holders currently looking for new jobs, there is an influx of IT talent looking to fill available roles in this industry. These are IT workers who already hold H-1B status and can start working right away. Because there is a recent influx of available talent, employers could presumably hire these candidates instead of registering new candidates, which could (in theory) lower the number of registrations. However, based on what we know and what we have seen so far, we expect the lottery to be mostly unaffected by the recent tech layoffs. On the contrary, we expect to see the number of registrations again climb this year.

While there’s no way to predict exactly what will happen, we can examine available data from last year to give us an idea of what we might see in the next few weeks. This article breaks down last year’s trends, examines the recent events in the IT industry and labor market as a whole, as well as provides our recommendations for how to prepare for life after the lottery, no matter how it turns out.

Last Year’s Trends

In 2022, we saw record demand for IT workers, which resulted in a lower likelihood of being selected than in previous years. USCIS received 483,927 registrations in 2022, which was a 57% increase over the 308,613 received in 2021 and a 76% increase over the 274,237 received in 2020. While USCIS selected 42% of the registrations in 2021 over three different rounds of selection, in 2022 USCIS completed the cap in a single round of selection, selecting 127,600 registrations for the 85,000 spots available. This amounted to a 26% selection rate, a significant decrease over the year prior.

For FY 2024, we expect that the number of H-1B registrations will remain the same or climb even higher. Because fewer people were selected last year, there will be a higher number of rollover cases. Unlucky employers from last year will try again this year, registering last year’s unselected candidates as well as new candidates. Further, as employers are aware their odds of selection are lower based on recent trends, they will register a greater number of candidates to make sure they can still fill their available roles, even if only about a quarter of their candidates gets selected.

Another contributing factor to the high number of registrations has to do with the simplified, low-cost process it entails. Since registration only costs employers $10 and is a fairly simple process (compared with filing a full-blown H-1B petition), employers are much more likely to participate. As labor crunches persist, especially in the tech industry, even employers who have never hired an H-1B worker before are exploring ways to meet their demands. Since the registration process is relatively easy, it’s now more accessible than ever.

Based on what we are seeing so far, we expect that demand will remain high this year. We encourage employers to plan accordingly, whether through registering additional candidates or exploring alternative options for work authorization if candidates don’t get picked. At ILBSG, we specialize in finding immigration solutions, so we can help companies strategize to get the best results.

Impact of Tech Layoffs on H-1B Lottery

While the recent tech layoffs certainly mean there are more available IT workers looking for jobs than in the past, we do not expect these layoffs to impact the H-1B lottery in any real measurable way.

For starters, these layoffs are all concentrated to the tech industry, which is not the only industry that utilizes H-1B visas. Other industries are still growing and similarly rely on H-1B visas for highly skilled workers. Further, many areas are still suffering from staffing shortages following the Covid-19 pandemic, as labor force participation has not yet recovered in all industries. Since there is simply not enough available talent for the open positions, employers will seek out H-1B workers for their highly skilled positions.

Next, most of the big tech layoffs happened November 2022-Januay 2023, so H-1B holders who were laid off have either already filed an H-1B transfer to join a new employer or they have departed the U.S. since the 60-day grace period for many of these workers has already ended. While U.S. employers can file a cap-exempt petition for these workers from outside the U.S. most of these employees have already found new positions, meaning these employees will not likely impact the lottery in any significant way.

It’s worth noting that the H-1B cap is for future employment, starting on October 1. This means employers are looking ahead to meet their staffing needs in the next six months, not necessarily just the positions they have open today. This means that even if a company hires one of the available laid-off H-1B workers, it doesn’t mean they won’t still need more workers later this year. Since the cost of registration is low and the process is simple, employers have no reason not to participate and register future candidates now.

Finally, many employers use the H-1B lottery to continue the employment of their existing employees. In the IT industry, many companies employ F-1 students who have earned STEM degrees in the U.S. Those who graduate with a STEM degree can participate in a total of 36 months of OPT, which includes 12 months of initial OPT and a special 24-month extension available for those who earned a degree in a STEM field. This means that some of these employees have been working for a U.S. employer for 2-3 years and registering in the H-1B cap each year, waiting to get picked. Tech layoffs will have no impact on these existing employment relationships. U.S. employers have invested years into training these employees and will be looking to secure an H-1B visa to continue their employment going forward, meaning these registration numbers will remain consistent with previous years.

For these reasons, we do not believe the big tech layoffs are indicative of a labor slowdown in the IT industry or that this will translate to a lower number of registrations. Instead, we expect to see high demand again this year. As the registration period remains open, we encourage employers to take advantage and plan accordingly.

Life After the Lottery: Next Steps

If you register in the H-1B lottery and receive a selection notice, you will have 90 days to file the H-1B petition with USCIS. The filing period will run from April 1, 2023 – June 30, 2023. We recommend filing the petition as early as possible, as last year’s data showed that the earlier the case was filed, the higher the likelihood of approval. We advise filing the petition with complete documentation, including an education evaluation, to increase the chance of a straight approval, without any RFE or further inquiry from USCIS. At ILBSG, we have several well-proven strategies for increasing success rates with H-1B petitions.

If you are not selected, it is not necessarily the end of the road. There are opportunities with cap-exempt H-1B employers, some country-specific opportunities for work authorization, as well as other nonimmigrant visa options. F-1 students can also pursue a higher level degree to continue their education and utilize practical training as a means to continue working in the U.S. until the next year’s lottery. At ILBSG, our attorneys can help employers and employees alike in finding the best solution following non-selection in the H-1B Cap.

If you have questions about the ongoing FY 2024 H-1B Cap or registration process, please reach out to us today. We are here to help.